Infios, today published a new proprietary research report, “The Rise of the Tariff-Optimised Supply Chain: Inside the New Rules of Global Trade,” showing how the 2025 U.S. tariff policy created a structural break in global trade and permanently changed how companies execute their supply chains
Based on year-over-year* analysis of more than one million U.S. customs entries, the report finds that tariffs are no longer a predictable cost line item. They are a live execution variable that companies actively manage through classification, mode selection, routing, warehousing and financial sequencing.
“At Infios, one of our guiding principles is Thinking Ahead, helping customers to anticipate change instead of reacting to it after the fact,” said Ed Auriemma, CEO at Infios. “This research highlights how global trade patterns are evolving and where companies are adjusting routes, transportation modes and execution strategies in response. Organisations that recognise those shifts early and respond quickly will be best positioned to deliver execution without interruption.”
The report identifies two distinct phases of response. In the initial shock period, importers experimented with “panic routing,” short-term mode shifts and temporary United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) surges. The 50%+ duty bracket, which had barely existed before 2025, spiked sharply before settling at a lower but still elevated level. And with urgency overriding cost discipline, air freight and truck share both rose as speed became the priority. Over time, the behaviours that lasted created a structural and deliberate redesign for global trade execution.
“What we’re seeing isn’t just a shift in sourcing or supplier mix. It’s a fundamental change in how trade is executed,” said Don Mabry, SVP, Global Trade Solutions at Infios. “Tariffs have introduced a level of volatility that companies can no longer manage with periodic adjustments or manual processes. Organisations able to sense change early, evaluate options quickly and reconfigure execution paths will outperform those operating within rigid, single-path systems designed for a more stable world. The organisations that treat trade execution as a dynamic discipline, not a back-office function, are the ones gaining a durable competitive advantage.”
Notable findings include:
- Effective duty rates reached 20–80 percent higher in some categories due to tariff stacking.
- Air freight increased by ~12 percentage points and stayed elevated, while ocean freight declined ~10–12 points and did not rebound, signalling that mode choice is now used as policy-risk insurance, not just cost optimisation.
- Truck freight rose ~8 points, reflecting sustained nearshoring and demand for more stable, shorter supply chains.
- Bonded warehouse usage jumped from ~10 percent to ~16–18 percent of entries and kept climbing, signalling that duty deferral is now mainstream.
- Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HTS) classification complexity nearly doubled from ~6 to ~11.6 sequences per entry, pushing many organisations beyond what manual compliance workflows can support.
- Shipment value rose ~78 percent while entry counts fell ~7 percent, indicating consolidation and “smarter shipping,” not a retreat from trade.
Not all sourcing shifted equally. Consumer goods and light manufacturing diversified away from China; specialty chemicals and industrial components stayed dependency-bound regardless of tariff exposure. At the same time, entirely new trade corridors emerged while others collapsed under policy pressure. The data reveals a supply chain landscape in motion: new corridors opening, unviable ones falling away and early signs of manufacturing relocation, making route intelligence a strategic asset, not a logistics afterthought.
Infios’s analysis concludes this is not a sourcing story, but an execution story. In a volatile policy environment, flexibility beats efficiency and execution precision is key. Companies thriving will be those that can sense change early, evaluate options quickly and reconfigure execution paths before conditions force their hand.
The report introduces a consistent definition for this new operating model: a tariff-optimised supply chain, which treats duties as a live execution variable, actively managed through classification, mode selection, routing, warehousing and financial sequencing, rather than as a fixed cost to absorb. In an environment where volatility is structural, those capabilities are what will separate the leaders in global trade.
To access the report, visit www.infios.com.
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